Obligatory oil post

So I’m thinking oil prices will drop back to around $100/barrel within the next 12 months. I’m not taking bets though. My last prediction, albeit tongue-in-cheek, didn’t go that well. But still. Remember that’s 2008 dollars I’m talking in. And in 2008 dollars, the last big peak was indeed around $100, which makes a jump of $35 look a bit less menacing than if one were to count in actual dollars. Not to forget that the US dollar lost 14% of its value against the Euro in one year.

First of all, I’m completely with you when you say that I’m just some guy with absolutely no qualifications in economics and that the real experts are projecting $150+/barrel by the end of 2008. In fact T. Boone Pickens recently said “85 million barrels of oil a day is all the world can produce, and the demand is 87 million. It’s just that simple.  It doesn’t have anything to do with the value of the dollar.”

He’s absolutely right except for the “all the world can produce” bit. So he’s assuming we’ve already hit the Peak Oil point. I must disagree. Humbly though. 85 million barrels is what the world is producing at the moment. While oil will eventually run out, the reason why the world is producing 85 million barrels a day at the moment is simply because that’s the demand the oil producers planned for a few years back. One can’t just ramp up production by turning a dial at the oil well. The capacity needs to be in place a few years in advance. I’m thinking that’s what’s happened now. It’s about production capacity, not about the amount of oil in the ground. Yet.

Also note the words of a certain Saudi oil minister some twenty years back: “If we force Western governments to invest heavily in finding alternative sources of energy, they will. This will take them no more than seven to 10 years and will result in their reduced dependence on oil as a source of energy to a point which will jeopardize Saudi Arabia’s interests.” So as long as there is oil in the ground OPEC is unlikely to allow an oil crisis to precipitate to a level where companies will start to seriously scramble for alternative sources.

So, current production levels + speculation = high prices. I’m thinking that production will eventually increase and the prices will return to more reasonable levels. But of course the whole argument is contingent on one thing: Peak Oil, or the point where the world’s maximum oil production rate is reached, has not arrived yet. Because if it has, the whole armchair argument breaks down and we’re in deep trouble.

The floor hereby open for critiques.

Geohashing - All Colombo meetups are sadly at sea

It’s from xkcd: http://xkcd.com/426/

Explanation here: http://wiki.xkcd.com/geohashing/Main_Page

Aerosmith

It’s the funniest thing. I can’t quite put my finger on it, but Aerosmith’s 1993 hit “Cryin” just triggers one of those nostalgic attacks that some people get when they hear a specific noise or get a specific smell associated with an incident or period. I’m one of those people — smell and music have always been the strongest triggers for me, often bringing up total-recall style memories.

Which is why this particular tune has me stumped. I can’t remember any particular incident associated with this song or having dedicated it to any person (meaning girl). It’s not even the lyrics. It’s just the tune that goes with the bit ”There was a time, when I was so broken hearted…” I don’t really remember listening to the song, knowing the lyrics or even knowing the title and the band. It’s just the tune.

I wonder how music is any different from crack. Crack lets you access certain emotions without having to go through the sequence of actions/experiences usually required to trigger them (no I’m not talking about the crack from experience). You can feel happy without anything happy actually happening to you. That’s why it’s dangerous. It’s a shortcut. It shortcircuits the stimulus-response mechanism that makes us strive to make something out of ourselves.

In essence, music does the same thing, doesn’t it? You pump yourself with a bunch of pitch variations and you feel a certain way without having to do anything. Maybe not to the same degree, but in principle it’s the same thing. Just what did evolution want with this kind of thing anyway? Why would pitch variations access the emotion pathways in the brain? Do animals hear music the same way we do, or is it just a human thing? Do each of us hear music the same way? We can never know without actually getting into another person’s head, can we?

My point? There is no point. Just thinking out loud here.

Guvmint

When one has to write a letter to the electricity board requesting a service fuse replacement, not knowing the Sinhalese word for ‘fuse’ becomes problematic. Not that I don’t know it — it’s been a decade and a half since the grade nine lesson on household wiring. And a decade since the last formal letter in Sinhalese. Five minutes of furious thinking and I dimly recall a word like “vilaayakaya” which I write down. The clerk suppresses a smirk as she files the letter away, probably wondering how a twenty something could have the handwriting of a grade schooler. If only she knew. Sometimes when I write on paper, I expect a spellchecker to auto underline misspelt words in red.

Government office clerks can be notoriously rude. I’ve got my own formula and thus far it has always worked. I always go in with a polite and crisp ‘good morning’ or ‘excuse me’ and in most government offices I’m the only person on the queue to do so and get a bit of extra attention from the file drone behind the glass. Then I proceed to state my request as if I’m speaking to a smart secretary in a highrise office — polite, well articulated, semi formal Sinhalese. It’s amazing to see how people act courteously when they are treated like courteous people. I’ve made my fair share of paperwork bloopers at government offices but I’ve never been given an attitude — I guess most people would feel ridiculous yelling at a guy whose doing the whole gentleman routine. Works for me. Try it next time.

A Woman, a Black Guy, a Baptist Minister and a Mormon. Bummer.

Since the Kottu and Achcharu bloggers seem to have local politics covered from almost every angle imaginable from sensible to downright ridiculous, I thought I’d do something completely nonsensical myself and comment on the US presidential race (it’s more interesting — you can joke without being hit with a terrorist tag).

About a month or two ago, during one of the “who will be the next American president” lunch discussions, I made a bet for Mitt Romney. Still holding to that. Not that I like him; it’s just based on some very pragmatic observations.

First of all, he’s not bald. Believe it or not, tall, presidential looking candidates with graying hair have always had a certain edge over their competitors. What of Kerry, you ask? Well, he lost because of that embalmed look. The monotonous voice didn’t help either.

Speaking of baldness, I think we can safely rule out Giuliani, McCain and Fred Thompson. Fred who? — if you must know, he’s bald and he’s got a ridiculous grin. And he used to work in a church pew factory. I didn’t even know there were such things. And McCain — he’s bald and old. If he wins he’d be the oldest president in office (but not the baldest, though). Throw in the towel dude, you’ve had your day. We know you’re a military hero and all, but this is the twenty first century. Heroes have powers. What have you got?

Edwards — he’s got the opposite problem. He’s just too young to be president. With that teeth and that hair, he really ought to try Hollywood. Nuff said.

And Giuliani, apart from also being bald and just happening to be the man in New York on 9/11 2001, doesn’t really have anything going for him. This is the guy (then US Attorney) who made a name for himself by taking out the 1980’s corporate raiders, out of whom the most notable was the Junk Bond King of Drexel Burnham Lambert, Michael Milken (who, interestingly, was himself bald — nobody knew this until one day he suddenly decided to take off his toupee).

Ok, Mike Huckabee? Southern Baptist Minister. President. One word: No. Or at least I think Arkansas is in the South. Gotta check that map. To his credit, he’s got some hair, but like Nixon, it’s thinning. Just look at that face and tell me it doesn’t remind you of Nixon. And we all know what happened to Nixon (you don’t? well he got eaten by this elephant and then… oh never mind).

Alrighty then, now we come to the interesting  bit: the main democratic lineup. No wonder the republicans consider this as a “beatable field of democrats”. There are two unspoken rules in American politics (and I’ll speak them because I’m not an American): neither a black man nor a woman shall become American president, at least not in the near future. Okay that’s one rule, but I’m combining, really. And yes I did say ‘black’. As far as Americans are concerned, I’m black, and I prefer to be called that, rather than something like African American or Ethnic South Asian Islander or something.

I mean, come on. The guy’s name is Hussein Obama (and isn’t “Barak” a Jewish name? How’d that get in there?) He’s sounds like America’s two worst enemies combined. Try saying “US President Obama” ten times and ask yourself whether it starts rolling off your tongue any easier. Sorry folks, I just don’t see it happening. It’s like an Adolf Mussolini running against Eisenhower. Not that I’m comparing Saddam to Hitler or anything, heaven forbid. Maybe he’d have had some chance had he a name like, oh I don’t know, “Trevor”, but Barak Hussein? No way.

Hillary, Hillary, Hillary. What are you thinking? You’re about the only person whose got a worse chance than Obama. Apart from the fact that I burst out laughing every time I try to say “First Gentleman”, what you’re actually trying to be is the Commander in Chief of the most powerful military in the history of man (I’m excluding the Roman army from consideration on account that Asterix and Obelix beat the heck out of them), and the Leader of the Free World, or whatever’s left of it after Bush. It’s an Alpha Male world lady, I don’t make these rules. And people of America, heed my words: we had this country ruled by women a lot and look where that got us.

Further adding to the comedy is the fact that, of all the good Christian candidates, the only person who is still married to his first wife and has never publicly admitted to an affair is the Mormon. It doesn’t get any weirder than that. As a side note, Hillary is not married to a wife.

Ok, I’m sure I’m missing somebody here. Oh yeah. Ron Paul. Seems like a nice fellow, but how on earth did an Air Force captain end up becoming a gynecologist? (I already know, but it sounds nice when you write it like that) And it doesn’t help having once been associated with a party that sounds like a breed of dog. At least the guy’s got hair, but still…

If all that’s not enough to give Romney an edge, just check out his advertising expenditure. If the good old greenback doesn’t get a guy into office, I just don’t know what will.

Well there you have it folks. Be nice to Romney and pray that he’s not as trigger-happy as the last guy.

(Note: the Tongue in Cheek label applies only to the analysis. The facts are real.)